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      02-11-2016, 12:56 AM   #1
Dirk.xd
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Unhappy F48 hybrid (xDrive30e) will not be produced?

I heard from my dealer that the F48 hybrid (xDrive30e) will not be produced. Is this true?
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      02-11-2016, 01:16 AM   #2
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Wait until the Geneva show, which should give final confirmation. It was certainly confirmed as of Nov 2015, and I don't know why it would be canned.

In my experience, most dealers are unreliable in giving accurate information about what's coming down the line -- mainly because their incentive is to sell what's on the lot now, or can be ordered now. The exception to this are limited editions.
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      02-11-2016, 09:22 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ttimbo View Post
It was certainly confirmed as of Nov 2015, and I don't know why it would be canned.
I can think of one reason... High-cost hybrids are becoming a lot less popular lately in the USA since at today's prices gas is $1.70/gallon, or about $0.44/liter.

That has really crushed the stock price of Tesla, for obvious reasons.

Not sure if super cheap gas is a worldwide trend, but if so, I would expect to see far fewer hybrids and electric cars for sale in the next year or so.
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      02-11-2016, 10:43 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ShinySteelRobot View Post
Not sure if super cheap gas is a worldwide trend, but if so, I would expect to see far fewer hybrids and electric cars for sale in the next year or so.
my hunch is that OPEC is trying to kill the US fuel industry and, if and when it does, will surely bring oil prices back up (or even higher). so it's a matter of who can hold their breath the longest. hopefully, the auto industry won't slow down and continue to drive towards the next phase (whatever that is or should be).
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      02-12-2016, 03:10 AM   #5
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I'm also not sure that the cost of the fuel is the only factor driving hybrids -- it's also a response to growing environmental concerns. I'd be surprised if current fuel prices are sustained for very long.
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      02-12-2016, 09:30 PM   #6
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Apologies for going off topic a bit...

Currently the USA is the largest oil producer in the world. Low oil prices are an enormous benefit for the overall USA economy (manufacturing, transportation, etc). However, the American oil industry is actually a tiny percentage of the total American economy. So low oil prices don't hurt the USA economy much, and America has a strong vested self interest in keeping oil prices low.

However, the Saudi / Qatar / UAE / etc oil industries are perhaps 75-85% of their entire economies. While the Saudis want to cut back production to drive up prices (they can rely on their huge foreign exchange reserves to sustain themselves for a long time), the Saudis don't trust other OPEC members to do the same. Oil is the lifeblood of many OPEC nations, and many of those other nations don't have the foreign exchange reserves to weather a storm. So the Saudis and the rest of OPEC are continuing down the path of producing high volumes of oil.

If OPEC ever gets its act together then we'll probably see higher prices. But with many OPEC members hurting -- desperate to sell as much oil as they can -- it seems like the current low oil price trend may continue for a while.

There's an interesting article in The Guardian about this very issue.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/...tion-oil-price

It'll be interesting to watch what happens over the coming years to see how this plays out.
In the meantime I sold all my stock in TSLA at a tidy profit.
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Last edited by ShinySteelRobot; 02-12-2016 at 09:36 PM..
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      02-12-2016, 10:53 PM   #7
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Interesting topic. Yes, the US is currently estimated to be the largest producer, but that is only since 2014; prior to then, Saudi Arabia and Russia have been larger, over many years. Much of the recent delta in US production is derived from shale and sand oils, where extraction costs are substantially higher than the relatively accessible reserves in the Middle East. Yes, countries such as Saudi have budget issues, but these are more due to the cost of war(s). A lot has also changed in oil markets since the December when the Guardian article was written: most of the US producers are listed companies, and are starting to bleed heavily; the big international companies -- BHP-Billiton, Shell and BP especially -- have reported big losses. So the outcome depends on who is more patient -- shareholders, Middle East sheiks, more erratic regimes such as Iraq, or the truly desperate, such as Venezuela. One of these groups will blink first, and then we can expect production to decline and prices to rise. Long term, the economics of oil extraction have tended to follow the Hotelling rule, which economist Harold Hotelling proposed was back in 1931. Put simply, that rule means that it is better to leave the stuff in the ground unless the return from extraction is greater than the long term interest rate. Now, interest rates at the moment is another story....
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      03-30-2016, 06:05 AM   #8
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Update on X1 PHEV

Carscoops has spotted the "xDrive25e" in the wild

http://www.carscoops.com/2016/03/spi...rain-into.html
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      03-30-2016, 03:53 PM   #9
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wow, $0.44 per litre is crazy low..... in Aus its more like $1.10+, and recently as high as $1.50... I would have loved a hybrid if it was available.... (and affordable!).
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