[CFoote]

Curious folks thoughts on where this crazy economy is going with supply chain disruptions, chip shortages, etc.

The real estate and car markets are out of control. Will the economy hit a recession in a few years?

Curious what you think. I'd love to get a southern winter spot in FL but I'm hoping prices drop down there in a year or two, they've almost doubled the past two years.

Chris

[Aronis]

Into the toilet. I so missed the 'angry tweets.'

Mike

[Ropes]

Seeing how we are in a bubble on multiple fronts and inflation at such levels, I would not be surprised to see it pop this year.

[Jakerx]

I do think the general market will contract a bit due to interest rate hikes this year.

Real estate market already shows sign of slowing. Don’t see many of the same factors that caused the previous crash.

Car market is definitely abnormal. For new cars I don’t see there being a crash. I do see new cars being fundamentally sold a different way long term (more orders, less on-hand inventory).

For used cars, I don’t see a bubble or crash either, but perhaps some stabilization at the new inflated prices. If anything, I see the used car market continuing to grow based on my previous comment on new cars.

[subterFUSE]

I think CPI will hit double digits before the end of 2022.

[Alcenos]

Most of the large semiconductor companies are at full capacity through the end of the year. Expect no significant changes.

[m3forme2016]

Originally Posted by CFoote

The real estate and car markets are out of control. Will the economy hit a recession in a few years?

Chris

You mean depression?

[Aronis]

Oh, don't worry "Build Back Better" will save us all.....

[snowbimmer]

Originally Posted by Aronis

Oh, don't worry "Build Back Better" will save us all.....

Well, at least inflation would come WAY down......................

[MacOSR]

2030 is the year the economists are saying it will be the worse depression in the US ever. It was the 2030’s but after this year they are saying 2030…they moved it up a few years. Way too much spending going on by the government.

[Andrae26]

I don't know but my puts printed heavily. I day trade for a living. I love the volatility. Investors are the ones that will feel it. If you were buying peaks without looking at actual charts you will feel some pain

[Boosted_8]

Ideas for Risk off and inflation plays? Thinking short tech, long commodities. China is the wild card here. Are they actually hiding a real estate sector that's already bust??

[Andrae26]

Originally Posted by Boosted_8

Ideas for Risk off and inflation plays? Thinking short tech, long commodities. China is the wild card here. Are they actually hiding a real estate sector that's already bust??

Short tech. Lots of downside to come. Apple report earnings next week and I see them affecting the market in a big way. They always fall at earnings

[phoenixbmwlife]

Let me start by saying this is just my opinion and this is not financial advice.

This economy is most certainly in a bubble that will burst sometime within 24 months and here's why.

The amount of money that has been pumped into this economy from stimulus checks, to FED unemployment checks, to PPP salaries/loans, to the FED buying up pretty much everything on their balance sheets is what kept the US economy afloat and pumping since the pandemic, and made the richest people in the world twice richer. I myself, including many of you on this forum have probably done extremely well post pandemic. The stock market rose to its highest levels, the crypto market last year also did the same, and the supply chain shortages only put more fuel in the Fire to increase inflation to the ridiculous levels we are experiencing. They say it's like 7% this is a lie. Car prices are significantly up, grocery items, real estate homes for sale, boats sales, and rent by itself is basically $1000+ pr mth more now than it was a year ago.

But here's the problem we now face. With the FEDs raising interest rates and slowing down their buying power, with the PPP salaries and loans almost or totally depleted, with the FUD of ALL markets, these higher prices for everything are not sustainable for much longer. Eventually, we're going to get to a point where we have no more extra money to buy certain luxury items. No more PPP to sustain these exorbitant lifestyles, and with credit cards maxed out and no extra money, people are going to buy less. When this happens in a large scale sellers will have no choice but to sell at discounts or not risk even bigger losses.
There are no more stimulus checks, no more FED unemployment, no more PPP loans, and this means to me that certain markets like real estate is going to take the biggest hit. Car prices will also take a dip, however, due to the chip shortage issues that still exist, I don't think the dip will be much initially. When the buying power drops equal or lower than the amount of time it takes to supply these chips only then will we see a big dip in my opinion, but no one knows at what level this will be so I'm not sure what will happen with car prices really. But to your question on real estate, it is going to be nasty. All I have to say is if anyone buys real estate now its going to be like buying at the top of the market back in 2006/2007.

[Andrae26]

Puts printing again. Another bloodbath.

[Boosted_8]

I'm triple short with leverage against Ark innovation...

Sold all crypto before Christmas.

I think Gold and silver is due a bump. Who the hell wants a IG bond that pays 2% coupon when the principal in dollars looses 10% a year. Phuck no sunshine.