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      03-21-2020, 08:28 PM   #45
2011zx10R
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Quote:
Originally Posted by A Need For Speed View Post
As an MD in the field in contact with others, I can tell you this is not what we are hearing. Pulmonary fibrosis can be the end result from many lung diseases and most assuredly this one as well but is NOT the end result in most patients that recover from Covid 19. Most patients do very well and do not need hospitalization. While some young people can be expected not to do well with any disease, the great majority of serious cases worldwide so far involve the elderly with other comorbidities (diseases) and the immunocompromised.
Thank you!

What bugs me are the stats that are put out sending people to a panic.

If you test a 100 people and five people have C-19 that's .05%

If you test 1000 people and five have c-19 that's .005

Anyway...

My first sighting of an F90 Comp Pack that thing looked outstanding...

Dude waved; thought that was cool

Was on NJ Parkway heading north I was in 2016 F80 Black

I'm going to test drive one to see if becomes a new dream car...
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      03-21-2020, 09:34 PM   #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2011zx10R View Post
Thank you!

What bugs me are the stats that are put out sending people to a panic.

If you test a 100 people and five people have C-19 that's .05%

If you test 1000 people and five have c-19 that's .005
Huh?
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      03-21-2020, 11:22 PM   #47
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I hope youve misplaced your decimals
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      03-22-2020, 11:21 PM   #48
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      03-23-2020, 07:02 AM   #49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wesleyan92 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2011zx10R View Post
Thank you!

What bugs me are the stats that are put out sending people to a panic.

If you test a 100 people and five people have C-19 that's .05%

If you test 1000 people and five have c-19 that's .005
Huh?
I was thinking the same thing.....
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      03-23-2020, 01:51 PM   #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2011zx10R View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by A Need For Speed View Post
As an MD in the field in contact with others, I can tell you this is not what we are hearing. Pulmonary fibrosis can be the end result from many lung diseases and most assuredly this one as well but is NOT the end result in most patients that recover from Covid 19. Most patients do very well and do not need hospitalization. While some young people can be expected not to do well with any disease, the great majority of serious cases worldwide so far involve the elderly with other comorbidities (diseases) and the immunocompromised.
Thank you!

What bugs me are the stats that are put out sending people to a panic.

If you test a 100 people and five people have C-19 that's .05%

If you test 1000 people and five have c-19 that's .005

Anyway...

My first sighting of an F90 Comp Pack that thing looked outstanding...

Dude waved; thought that was cool

Was on NJ Parkway heading north I was in 2016 F80 Black

I'm going to test drive one to see if becomes a new dream car...
seriously. wtf. this is middle school math.

I recommend IXL. it's pretty good and web based. looks like this is covered in 7th grade.
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      03-25-2020, 02:45 PM   #51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2011zx10R View Post
Thank you!

What bugs me are the stats that are put out sending people to a panic.

If you test a 100 people and five people have C-19 that's .05%

If you test 1000 people and five have c-19 that's .005

Anyway...

My first sighting of an F90 Comp Pack that thing looked outstanding...

Dude waved; thought that was cool

Was on NJ Parkway heading north I was in 2016 F80 Black

I'm going to test drive one to see if becomes a new dream car...

When I read responses like this I have to comment. First, regarding the car since this is a car forum - go test drive one, you’ll love it, express serious interest, make a personal connection with the salesperson and then walk away and wash your hands (literally). Wait a few weeks and you’ll see what I’m talking about - by three weeks and you’ll likely be the only one looking at purchasing at that dealership on that day and they will be anxious and open to giving you a great deal or your priorities may have changed by then. Too many people think it will be business as usual in a month or so - it won’t be. I hope I am wrong but I don’t think so.

Your math above, as others have pointed out is off by a factor of 2. I think you meant 0.05 not 0.05%. Since 0.05 = 5%. The logarithmic nature of the transmission progression and the reality of asymptomatic / mild vectors are lost on many people. I am STEM trained, with both a BSc MD and an FRCPC without breaking my anonymity - I am in Canada and took steps back in mid Feb, voluntarily closed my clinic since Mar 5 to reduce risk of transmission even though we were hundreds of miles from any reported cases then. This virus moves predictably and people were not taking “social distancing” seriously. New York is now demonstrating this and it will get bad.

Please don’t loose hope though, we will get through this but it will be messy for the next few months. There will be no effective vaccine in significant quantities until late 2020 or later realistically and that is best case scenario - and simple RNA viruses like this mutate very easily.

I use this example to drive the seriousness home to others like this - the US mortality peak will likely be mid to late April, by then MORE people will be dying per day (15000+) from covid than the whole sum 2019 gun homicide total (approx 15000). Yes, more dying from covid every single day than gun homicides all year. More covid deaths in just several months than the US had in total fatalities from World War 2 ( approx half a million). And that is the best case scenario! As areas get hit hard and this rolls through North America we will have significant casualties from non covid cases just like in China and Italy. Example - you have a heart attack and your local hospital resources are swamped - you may not be able to get a cardiac cath or bypass.

I hope this shocks the #%! out those whom are still denying the scope of this threat. Ventilators, PPE, army hospitals, etc will help for sure but what must NOT get lost in the noise is that’s nothing is more necessary right now than reducing the rate of transmission to prevent our acute care resources from being over-run. No amount of resources can handle a tsunami of cases than is building because of idiots out socializing on spring break and etc although thankfully this is seemingly stopping now. Do your part and call these people out. It is time for the meek and polite to grow some balls. People not following CDC and isolation / distancing / hand washing / etc are literally firing a machine gun into the gut of humanity.

Stay safe everyone and do your part by physical distancing and following CDC guidelines even more stringently if possible given real possibility and developing evidence that asymptomatic vectors (people not showing symptoms) maybe responsible for up to 50% of case transmission. Therefore we must look at everyone as if they may be infected for the time being - even people that look healthy - even ourselves. Then we will get through this. Please forgive the extended rant but I felt compelled to spread the word out of love for my fellows - kinda like Paul Revere - only with a touque.
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      03-25-2020, 06:50 PM   #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by northtorque View Post
When I read responses like this I have to comment. First, regarding the car since this is a car forum - go test drive one, you’ll love it, express serious interest, make a personal connection with the salesperson and then walk away and wash your hands (literally). Wait a few weeks and you’ll see what I’m talking about - by three weeks and you’ll likely be the only one looking at purchasing at that dealership on that day and they will be anxious and open to giving you a great deal or your priorities may have changed by then. Too many people think it will be business as usual in a month or so - it won’t be. I hope I am wrong but I don’t think so.

Your math above, as others have pointed out is off by a factor of 2. I think you meant 0.05 not 0.05%. Since 0.05 = 5%. The logarithmic nature of the transmission progression and the reality of asymptomatic / mild vectors are lost on many people. I am STEM trained, with both a BSc MD and an FRCPC without breaking my anonymity - I am in Canada and took steps back in mid Feb, voluntarily closed my clinic since Mar 5 to reduce risk of transmission even though we were hundreds of miles from any reported cases then. This virus moves predictably and people were not taking “social distancing” seriously. New York is now demonstrating this and it will get bad.

Please don’t loose hope though, we will get through this but it will be messy for the next few months. There will be no effective vaccine in significant quantities until late 2020 or later realistically and that is best case scenario - and simple RNA viruses like this mutate very easily.

I use this example to drive the seriousness home to others like this - the US mortality peak will likely be mid to late April, by then MORE people will be dying per day (15000+) from covid than the whole sum 2019 gun homicide total (approx 15000). Yes, more dying from covid every single day than gun homicides all year. More covid deaths in just several months than the US had in total fatalities from World War 2 ( approx half a million). And that is the best case scenario! As areas get hit hard and this rolls through North America we will have significant casualties from non covid cases just like in China and Italy. Example - you have a heart attack and your local hospital resources are swamped - you may not be able to get a cardiac cath or bypass.

I hope this shocks the #%! out those whom are still denying the scope of this threat. Ventilators, PPE, army hospitals, etc will help for sure but what must NOT get lost in the noise is that’s nothing is more necessary right now than reducing the rate of transmission to prevent our acute care resources from being over-run. No amount of resources can handle a tsunami of cases than is building because of idiots out socializing on spring break and etc although thankfully this is seemingly stopping now. Do your part and call these people out. It is time for the meek and polite to grow some balls. People not following CDC and isolation / distancing / hand washing / etc are literally firing a machine gun into the gut of humanity.

Stay safe everyone and do your part by physical distancing and following CDC guidelines even more stringently if possible given real possibility and developing evidence that asymptomatic vectors (people not showing symptoms) maybe responsible for up to 50% of case transmission. Therefore we must look at everyone as if they may be infected for the time being - even people that look healthy - even ourselves. Then we will get through this. Please forgive the extended rant but I felt compelled to spread the word out of love for my fellows - kinda like Paul Revere - only with a touque.
Valid points.

My Concern is that eventually 6 months from now it will be a very low number of people who are carrying it and do not even know, and or care. Then it starts all over again, this would, will, may, be the most annoying virus ever.
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      03-25-2020, 07:28 PM   #53
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My M5C was supposed to arrive at the dealership on 3/28, but its status on MyBMW went "backwards" from "In Transit" to "At The Port", so perhaps the ship captain got scared back to Bremerhaven....
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      03-25-2020, 07:31 PM   #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by marcvtec View Post
Valid points.

My Concern is that eventually 6 months from now it will be a very low number of people who are carrying it and do not even know, and or care. Then it starts all over again, this would, will, may, be the most annoying virus ever.
Totally true Marcvtec. The modelling predicts 4 or more “waves” of several months wax and wane that reduce in intensity (paradoxically the second wave might be worse in some areas that get hit lightly first time around) and as herd immunity grows that will mitigate transmission along with the population getting used to physical measures to reduce spread. This is manageable if we can break up the potential tsunami (the tsunami is not manageable or course) instead into these smaller waves of ill individuals where the acute care hospital resources can support those whom get really sick which seems to run around 5-10% more or less. Then covid will likely become another yearly background illness just like influenza and we will add it to the immunization schedule and tell our grandkids some day about the pandemic of 2020. (2019-2021 to be more precise). Spread the wisdom people.
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      03-26-2020, 05:07 AM   #55
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      03-26-2020, 01:41 PM   #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by A Need For Speed View Post
As an MD in the field in contact with others, I can tell you this is not what we are hearing. Pulmonary fibrosis can be the end result from many lung diseases and most assuredly this one as well but is NOT the end result in most patients that recover from Covid 19. Most patients do very well and do not need hospitalization. While some young people can be expected not to do well with any disease, the great majority of serious cases worldwide so far involve the elderly with other comorbidities (diseases) and the immunocompromised.
Agree with this, just wondering how many of these patients also get nosocomial pneumonias since so many are intubated and hanging out in the ICU for a while....
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      03-26-2020, 04:56 PM   #57
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Originally Posted by ZZZZMD1991 View Post
Agree with this, just wondering how many of these patients also get nosocomial pneumonias since so many are intubated and hanging out in the ICU for a while....
The data I have see is that they are not getting nosocomial pneumonias like you see with influenza and then getting staph aureus. They love peep and prone ventilation with covid19.
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      03-26-2020, 08:12 PM   #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZZZZMD1991 View Post
My M5C was supposed to arrive at the dealership on 3/28, but its status on MyBMW went "backwards" from "In Transit" to "At The Port", so perhaps the ship captain got scared back to Bremerhaven....

No, that just means it's at the receiving port.

My delivery status did the same thing when the boat unloaded in Brunswick.

When your car leaves the port for the dealer, it will go back to In Transit.
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