This Netherlands+Norway+Spain EV registrations cumulative leading sales data starts to show why VW is so worried about Tesla:
First the full year -
• You can see Tesla sales (lt pink) starting to punch through the Asian brands, chasing down Audi (grey) & VW (red)
• Q4 looks particularly worrisome so let's look at just that
• Here you can really see that Tesla (green) has punched through all the brands save VW (red)
• VW knows every lost sale is one they might never get back - brands can be sticky
• The risk for Tesla is their brand disappoints & VW (or others) offer a more compelling product, though as the data shows, it's getting mighty late for that
In short, if Tesla's product locks in with most buyers AND Tesla's able to get to near sales parity with VW BEFORE VW can put its best foot forward ... it's likely game over.
And based on this data, that point could come as early as next year, Q3 or Q4 if I had to bet ... and I'd also bet that's a good 3 years before VW thought they had to worry.