Thread: Going solar?
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      02-12-2020, 11:58 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by byroncheung View Post
Thanks for the thoughtful response.

The saving is all based on saved electricity bill. The subsidy are tax deductions against the installation cost of the system, the federal and state tax rebates amount to about 13k for the size of system I’m looking at. So basically the math is – say expected electricity bill over next 25 say is roughly 90k, minus my out of pocket cost of 20k, will save 70k.

Now, the calculation he showed me was assuming electricity going up at a rate of 4% a year, which I didn’t fact check. It’s interesting you brought up cost of electric cost has been lowering in the last 5 years, care to share the source of that info? Obviously it will change the math if electricity cost are going down instead of going up...

ps : i found out, at least for NY, residential electricity seems to be about flat in the last 10 year or so... : https://www.nyserda.ny.gov/Researche...ty-Residential
That would be retail. I was referring to wholesale. My employer is a participant in the PJM market (PJM.com) where you can see wholesale prices. Today prices are under $20/MWh or $0.02/KWh. Ignoring mild weather which has prices low for winter, I would expect that to be in the low $20s. 5 years ago that would have been low $30s. Natural gas below $2.00 and each new generator being more efficient has the conversion below $20 (may be as low as $16). Solar is of course zero dispatch, wind is negative (because of the production tax credit). So on balance costs are falling wholesale. I am most experienced with PJM but this seems to be true nationwide. EIA probably has some reasonably reliable data, as would your state’s electric regulatory body. And for that matter, your utility might even provide it.
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